Business Today: UK consumer confidence hits record low as recession looms; mini-budget to ‘boost growth’

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UK consumer confidence hits record low as recession looms; mini-budget to 'boost growth'
Live / UK consumer confidence hits record low as recession looms; mini-budget to 'boost growth'
UK public turn gloomier about economic situation, as Kwasi Kwarteng prepares tax cuts to end 'cycle of stagnation'
Headlines
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UK in recession and further interest rate hikes probable, Bank warns Kwarteng
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Food / Sunday roasting dwindles as cost of cooking crisis hits home
Kwasi Kwarteng / 'Shock and awe' entrance leaves Treasury reeling
Cost of living / Poorest risk spending half disposable incomes on energy bills, UK report says
Japan / Country to reopen to tourists after more than two years of Covid border restrictions
Rail strikes / 40,000 RMT members to stage further action on 8 October
Explainer / What does the Bank's interest rate rise mean for people's finances?
Lidl / Second rise this year makes it best-paying UK supermarket
Currencies / Japan forced to prop up yen after bank keeps to negative interest rates
Cost of living crisis / What are the rest of the G7 doing?
Fantasy house hunt / Thatched cottages for sale
Today's agenda
Consumers across the UK are the gloomiest on record as the economic picture darkens … as the government announces its plan to kickstart UK economic growth with a flurry of tax cuts that will drive up borrowing.

People are increasingly worried about their personal finances, and anxious that the economy is turning sour, the research body GfK warns, a day after the Bank of England said the UK has probably entered a recession this quarter.

GfK's long-running consumer confidence index has fallen another five points this month to a new low of -49.

That is the worst since records began in 1974, as the tightening squeeze on living costs made people much more pessimistic about their own finances.

This is the fourth new low in five months, as the economy has been battered by rising prices and weakening activity.

Confidence in personal finances over the coming year shed nine points to -40, while confidence in the economy over the next 12 months lost eight points to -68, a really grim reading.

People are also very unwilling to buy big-ticket items, with soaring inflation forcing households to cut back.

Kwasi Kwarteng will vow to break the UK's "cycle of stagnation" today, by lowering the tax burden in a hotly awaited mini-budget.

The chancellor will announce 30 separate measures – including tax cuts, new investment zones and an acceleration of infrastructure projects – in an effort to raise the economy's growth rate to his stated target of 2.5% a year.

One of the main elements of the package – the £13bn reversal of the increase in national insurance contributions, introduced in April to fund the health and social care levy – will come into force on 6 November.

While almost 28 million people will keep more of their earnings as a result of the move, the Resolution Foundation thinktank said on average the poorest 10% of households would gain £11.41 in 2022-23, while the richest 10% of households would gain £682.

The mini-budget is expected to contain significant further interventions to boost growth beyond the reversal of the NICs rise and next April's planned increase in corporation tax, Treasury sources have confirmed, with one Whitehall source describing the package as having "more rabbits than Watership Down".

One key plank of the fiscal event will be new investment zones for 38 local and mayoral authorities in England – including West Midlands, Tees Valley, Somerset and Hull – which will have major planning deregulation to release more land for housing and commercial development, and tax cuts for businesses.

The agenda
• 
9am BST: eurozone flash PMIs for September
• 9.30am BST: UK flash PMIs for September
• 9.30am BST: the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, presents mini-budget
• 11am BST: CBI distributive trends survey of UK retailers

We'll be tracking all the main events throughout the day ...
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